After the election: Looking at results

MPR News' full coverage of the 2018 midterm elections, including the latest breaking news, analysis and results.

  • Walker, Evers race for Wisconsin governor could be headed for a recount

    Wisconsin's race for governor is shaping up to be the tightest in more than 50 years and may be headed for a recount.
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  • On the air: Todd Rapp (@toddrapp) on the 1st Congressional District. "It's very much like what we went through two years ago. There's about 100 precincts left. 40 of those precincts are in Mower County, where Austin is. And if we remember correctly, we sat here waiting for Mower County to come in before we knew that Tim Walz had won. It looks like this is repeating itself. It looks like the last set of precincts that would be good for Feehan. But there's a pretty significant number of votes in that county that are left out there. If he wins Mower county comfortably, it'll still be tight, it may be a recount, but it'll be much harder for Hagedorn to win."
     
    Catch the analysis on the 📻 or online at mprnews.org/listen
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  • Midnight poll closure: Alaska

     
    There were late alarm bells sounded last week over longtime GOP Alaska Rep. Don Young, who as the longest-serving member of the House is the dean of the House. The main Republican superPAC started spending to help shore him up. It's worth watching to see if a Democratic wave could even reach Alaska.
     
    In the governor's race, the incumbent independent, Bill Walker, dropped out of the race just two-and-a-half weeks before the election and endorsed Democrat Mark Begich. This, though, is Republicans' best chance to flip a gubernatorial seat with Mike Dunleavy.
     
    —NPR
     
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    Suburban voters push Democrats to victories in Minnesota



    MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Minnesota Democrats regained control of the state House and took two congressional seats from Republicans in Tuesday's midterm elections, while Democratic Rep. Tim Walz defeated Republican Jeff Johnson for governor and Democratic Sen. Tina Smith kept her seat.
     
    Bright spots for Republicans included a flip of a traditionally Democratic congressional seat in northeastern Minnesota and a victory in a special election for a single state Senate seat that prevented Democrats from taking that chamber.
     
    Voters retained Smith for the final two years of Al Franken's term over Republican challenger Karin Housley.
     
    Rep. Keith Ellison was elected attorney general in a race clouded by a domestic abuse allegation that drew far more attention to the contest than usual. But it was the struggle for the U.S. House that had many national observers eyeing Minnesota, where Democrats flipped two GOP seats, Republicans flipped a Democratic seat, and the race for Walz's seat remained tight.
     
    U.S. HOUSE
     
    In northeastern Minnesota's 8th District, Pete Stauber, a St. Louis County commissioner and retired Duluth police officer, defeated former state representative Joe Radinovich in a race that was seen as Republicans' best chance nationwide of picking up a Democratic seat. The seat opened up with Rep. Rick Nolan's retirement.
     
    In the suburban 3rd District, Democratic businessman Dean Phillips defeated Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen. Phillips formerly ran his family's liquor company and is a grandson of the late advice columnist Abigail Van Buren, better known as Dear Abby. In the suburban/rural 2nd, Democratic former medical device company executive Angie Craig unseated Republican Rep. Jason Lewis, who narrowly beat her in 2016.
     
    In southern Minnesota's 1st District, Republican Jim Hagedorn, a former Treasury Department official and son of a former congressman, was locked in a tight race against Democratic Iraq War veteran Dan Feehan, who was acting assistant secretary of defense for readiness in the Obama administration. The seat became open when Walz ran for governor.
     
    History was made in the solidly Democratic 5th District, where state Rep. Ilhan Omar became the first Somali-American — and one of the first two Muslim women — elected to Congress. Omar faced Republican Jennifer Zielinski in the Minneapolis-area district.
     
    LEGISLATURE
     
    Powered by surging turnout in the suburbs that pushed Democrats to commanding victories up and down the ballot, Democratic House candidates were on track to unseat enough Republican incumbents to take back the majority.
     
    Republican House Speaker Kurt Daudt conceded they would lose the majority that they've held since 2015. The final margin of Democrats' majority was unclear as votes were still being tallied.
     
    It had been considered a tall order, as Democrats needed to flip 11 seats to take control of the chamber. Republicans were bullish on their chances of defending longtime incumbents even amid a backlash against President Donald Trump and his party.
     
    Democrats' new majority expands the party's foothold in state government. Walz won the open race for governor, but Republicans kept control of the state Senate in a special election in a rural St. Cloud-area district.
     
    The special election was triggered when GOP Sen. Michelle Fischbach resigned the seat to be sworn in as lieutenant governor. It's generally a safe GOP district, but Fischbach's departure left the Senate deadlocked at 33-33, raising the stakes in Tuesday's election. Minnesota's 66 remaining Senate districts aren't on the ballot until 2020.
     
    GOP Rep. Jeff Howe, who has represented half of the district since 2013, defeated former Sartell mayor and county commissioner Joe Perske. With two weeks to go, more than $1 million of mailers and political spending poured into the race.
     
    OTHER STATEWIDE
     
    Secretary of State Steve Simon sought a second term as chief elections officer, emphasizing his work on beefing up cybersecurity to protect the election system from hacker attacks, and on boosting voter turnout. His Republican challenger was former state senator and former Red Wing mayor John Howe, who highlighted the office's lesser-known functions of business registrations.
     
    In the race for the open position of state auditor, Republican Pam Myhra, a certified public accountant, former state representative from Burnsville and former audit manager for the accounting firm KPMG, faced Democrat Julie Blaha, of Ramsey, former secretary-treasurer of the Minnesota AFL-CIO, former math teacher and former president of the teachers' union in the Anoka-Hennepin school district.
     
    Associate Justice Margaret Chutich sought re-election to the Minnesota Supreme Court. Her opponent, family law attorney Michelle MacDonald, was making a third run for the high court despite a past that included having her law license suspended for professional misconduct allegations. She remains on probation.
     
    VOTING
     
    Minnesotans embraced their expanded right to vote early. More than 600,000 people had already voted via absentee and mail-in ballots by Tuesday morning.
     
    This story has been updated to correct that Dean Phillips formerly ran his family's liquor company and is a grandson of the late advice columnist Abigail Van Buren, better known as Dear Abby.
     
    -- Steve Karnowski, Associated Press
    by Michael Olson, MPR News edited by Matt Mikus, MPR News 11/7/2018 6:25:51 AM
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  • New York Times’ “live polling” fares well in Minnesota. Mostly.

    Readers who are still hanging with this live blog may be among the die-hards who are aware of the New York Times’ massive “live polling” experiment this year. In partnership with the Siena Research Institute, the Times conducted 96 polls in hotly contested races – including 4 in Minnesota.
     
    Although polls are snapshots in time that don’t necessarily reflect the later outcome, the Times’ early September poll showed Dean Phillips (tonight’s winner) ahead. Similarly, they showed Angie Craig leading in their early October poll of district 2.
     
    The Times polled Minnesota’s 8th two times: showing a tie in early September, and then eventual winner Pete Stauber ahead by a 15-percentage point margin in mid-October. That big swing led the New York Times’ Nate Cohn to write a transparent, almost soul-searching, article.
     
    Stauber did indeed win, although with 92 percent of precincts reporting his margin is much narrower that the poll suggested: only 4 percentage points.
     
    From APM Research Lab’s Poll Watch: Minnesota 2018
     
    -Craig Helmstetter, APM Research Lab
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  • Feehan to wait on official canvasing results

    Associated Press
    Democrat Dan Feehan says he'll wait for official canvassing results before deciding his next move in southern Minnesota's 1st District race.

    Republican Jim Hagedorn won it by just over 1,300 votes.

    Minnesota law calls for counties to review election results by hand-counting ballots in random precincts and comparing them to election-night totals. Depending on the county, that's scheduled for Nov. 19 or 20. Results aren't official until they've been certified by a canvassing board.

    The margin for a publicly funded recount is a quarter of a percentage point. Hagedorn's margin is above the cutoff, or just under half a point.

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