Minnesota budget forecast released

A live blog and discussion for Midday 12/1/2011

Finance officials release the latest state budget forecast Thursday — the first look at the budget since Gov. Mark Dayton and the GOP-controlled Legislature enacted a budget plan that delayed school aid and borrowed against future tobacco payments to erase a $5 billion deficit. Guests on Midday include MPR News reporter Tom Scheck, and two former speakers of the Minnesota House -- DFLer Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Republican Steve Sviggum.

by Jon Gordon, MPR News 12/1/2011 2:00:51 PM
RT @AP: BREAKING: Construction spending, manufacturing both up in positive signs for economy -ldh

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 3:07:04 PM
Two people briefed on budget say there is a surplus of $876m in current budget cycle.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 3:55:30 PM
Several sources say $876 m will go to pay back state budget reserves. They also say state has budget deficit in the next cycle.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 3:58:32 PM
The news counters State Economist Tom Stinson's prediction in fall that says state would face a deficit.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 3:59:38 PM
Same thing. RT @NorthernMNer: @tomscheck Next cycle--next FY or next biennium?

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:02:25 PM
RT @PoliticsMN: 1/2: By law, state's $876m surplus will first refill cash flow a/c, adding $255m to bring it to statutory $350m. #mnleg

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:10:14 PM
RT @PoliticsMN: 2/2: The remaining $620m will go to budget reserve, which stands at $0 w/ a statutory target of $653m #mnleg

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:10:21 PM
Tom Scheck's story on what's now expected to be a budget forecast showing a surplus.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 4:25:48 PM
State forecast says economic outlook "has dimmed." Real GDP growth will avg 1.7% in '12 and '13 (down from expected 3.1%)

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:27:59 PM
Forecast documents also say Minnesota's economy is likely to be better than the U.S. economy in '11 and '12.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:30:06 PM
The state is facing a budget deficit of $1.3 billion in the 2014-2015 budget cycle. That doesn't include K12 shift repayment.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:30:45 PM
State closed FY '11 with $526 m greater than forecast. Revenues also exceeded forecast by $358 m. Spending also decreased $348m

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:32:16 PM
Lower HHS spending accounts for more than 80 percent of a forecast spending reduction of $205 million in FY '11 & $348m in FY '12-13.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:33:07 PM
State law requires all of the surplus to go to cash flow account ($255m) and state budget reserve ($621m).

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:34:51 PM
Global Insights predicts an "increased risk of recession for the U.S. economy." Eurozone problem and Washington gridlock partly to blame.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:40:08 PM
Folks are asking me about whether the money can go to the stadium. Unlikely since everyone opposes using Gen Fund money for stadium.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:43:00 PM
So MN will have a $625 m reserve in an election year. Standing by for the first refrain of "give it back!".

by NewsCut via twitter 12/1/2011 4:43:34 PM
The brighter economic prospects give lawmakers breathing room if they want to do a stadium bill.....

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:43:54 PM
Tom Scheck will be on Midday at 11...along with two former speakers of the Minnesota House -- DFLer Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Republican Steve Sviggum.

by Jon Gordon, MPR News 12/1/2011 4:44:07 PM
But the brighter forecast (and redistricting) will also give the Legislature added incentive to end the session earlier than usual...

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:44:26 PM
GOP Sen. Majority Leader Amy Koch "It shows that Republicans are going to leave the state budget in much better shape then they took it in."

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:46:24 PM
FYI: Few ppl I've spoken to say none of the surplus would pay back school shift b/c law requires reserve & cash flow funds filled first.

by webertom1 via twitter 12/1/2011 4:48:41 PM
The biggest factor as to why there's a surplus: Increased income tax collections were higher and decreased spending on HHS programs.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:49:54 PM
From MPR News education reporter Tom Weber: Here's the law that lists what gets paid first if there's a surplus. School shift is 3rd in line: j.mp

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 4:52:31 PM
Global insight, which is the state's economic consultant, also says the probability of a recession is greater than normal.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:52:33 PM
Global Insight has raised its probability of a recession because of the Eurozone's financial problems have increased.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:54:03 PM
I'm on MPR's Midday for a bit at 11 to discuss the forecast. Former speakers Steve Sviggum & Margaret Anderson Kelliher on for the hour.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 4:56:06 PM
Still would like to see some analysis of how media budget reports were off by almost $2 billion. It's not like they almost got it right.

by NewsCut via twitter 12/1/2011 5:03:24 PM
A state budget surplus and no Vikings blackout?

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:06:01 PM
MPR News reporter Tom Scheck on Midday now.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:09:23 PM
MPR's Scheck: Forecast creates breathing room for governor and lawmakers but cautions forecast for economic growth has been cut....forecasters saying it's still a long slog.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:13:02 PM
Former Minnesota House Speakers Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Steve Sviggum on air now.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:19:17 PM
Ex-Speaker Sviggum: In an election year, lawmakers may be interested in using surplus to reverse education shift.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:20:36 PM
Sviggum, Kelliher say no chance of surplus returning in rebates to taxpayers, ala Gov. Jesse Ventura's "Jesse checks" rebate from 2001.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:23:49 PM
Sviggum: Absolutely zero connection between surplus announcement and proposals for a Vikings stadium. "Not even a thread between the two issues."

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:26:15 PM
MMB Commissioner to start forecast newser: "Surprise!" Attributes it to his daughter.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 5:29:49 PM
MMB Commissioner Jim Schowalter says tax collections have been coming in "better than anticipated" at $358m.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 5:30:37 PM
Minnesota Budget Commissioner on live stream now talking about budget forecast, surplus.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:30:38 PM
Interested in reading the state forecast? Bang it here: www.mmb.state.mn.us

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 5:31:55 PM
State economist Tom Stinson. Economic outlook worse now than it was in February but there is not another recession in the forecast.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:34:45 PM
State Economist says extension of unemployment insurance and payroll tax cut is baked into forecast.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 5:34:58 PM
State Economist Tom Stinson says if Congress doesn't act on those provisions - it would be a cut of up to 1 percent in growth.

by tomscheck via twitter 12/1/2011 5:35:24 PM
State economist Stinson: The Minnestoa economy is doing better than nationally, jobs and wages are growing faster than the US average; that's expected to continue through 2012.

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:37:05 PM
State economist Stinson: "These forecasts are not guarantees. You may have already figured that out ."(reporters chuckle)

by Paul Tosto, MPR News 12/1/2011 5:40:30 PM

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